Number of additional markets tests resulting in greater than zero $

Hey Mark can we get a very simple function built into crosschecks?
This would be: Number of additional markets tests resulting in greater than zero $.  Value is "3" for example
I just did a little study and found that if a strategy can be greater than zero in net profit on 3 additional markets it has a much higher probability of passing MC and other tests.  The key is that is doesnt really matter which markets pass, just that 3 do out of 6 for example.
 

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  • Votes +5
  • Project StrategyQuant X
  • Type Bug
  • Status Fixed
  • Priority Low

History

j
#1

jmtc1230

13.06.2018 03:29

Task created

MF
#2

Mark Fric

13.06.2018 09:00

Attachment additional_markets_filtering.png added

good idea, we will implement it
MF
#3

Mark Fric

05.07.2018 19:17

Priority changed from Normal to Low

r
#4

Marcel

06.09.2018 13:51
Voted for this task.
g
#5

geektrader

15.10.2018 23:37
Voted for this task.
N
#6

nathan

15.11.2018 08:35
Voted for this task.
N
#7

nathan

15.11.2018 08:42
This is an excellent change.


It would also be very useful if we could time-slice each of those markets into say 5 or 10 equal times periods. We could then say: Passes x% of time-slices in a market, for x number of markets. Or simply say of all time-slices across all markets, X% of the time slices must pass.


By using time-slices you can derive greater statistical significance from the same number of markets. For example, performing this test on 3 markets, gives 3 results. But performing this test on 3 markets, each time-sliced into 5 equal times periods, you now have 15 tests and you can filter strategies that pass say 10 of these 15 tests. This also helps to avoid book end profits that can give false-positives (pasess) when looking at just 3 markets and their overall result.

b
#8

bentra

21.11.2018 13:25
Voted for this task.
b
#9

bentra

21.11.2018 13:33
@Nathan RE time-slices

I am all for eking out extra statistical significance but in your example wouldn't each of the slices have much less statistical significance making that trade off a wash at best? Consider an extreme example where a system with a very large SL and tiny TP is used or really any system expected to have a large win rate % with a much larger average loss trade $ compared to average win trade $. A system where most of the time-slices are expected to be positive and the losing time-slices are losing very big.


Or another extreme example. As we slice smaller and smaller we would converge on win%/loss%.

But I guess slicing is good as long as we still have reasonable statistical significance in each slice... 

N
#10

nathan

10.12.2018 15:17
This is a shame - entire development process will take a lot longer, especially for those not filtering with Monte Carlo which is not advised for validation and robustness of data mined strategies. Going directly from Higher Precision to OPt.Profile/Walk Forward makes things very slow.


If we could simply say 3/4 additional markets in the retest must pass this would cut down on a very significant amount of development time.


Time slices would be even nicer, but if the 3/4 (x/y) markets filters cannot be done within 6 months of the original OP then I am not hopeful.

a
#11

Ash24FX

29.12.2018 23:26
Voted for this task.
TT
#12

Tamas

11.01.2019 09:21

Status changed from New to Fixed


Votes: +5

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